Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction, Match Preview & Betting Tips, 2025-05-12 18:30:00
The Serie A clash at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo between Venezia and Fiorentina is shaping up as a crucial fixture for both teams on May 12, 2025, with kick-off at 18:30 CET. Venezia, sitting at 18th place with only 26 points, is caught in a tight relegation battle after being promoted recently. On the flip side, Fiorentina is 8th with 59 points, eyeing a strong finish that could propel them into contention for European qualification.
Looking at their recent form, Venezia has been struggling, with a mix of draws and losses and managing just one win in their last five league matches. They scored five goals and conceded six during this period, achieving only one clean sheet. Meanwhile, Fiorentina’s recent five matches across different competitions depict a mixed picture: three wins and two losses. They scored seven goals and let in seven as well. Notably, their star forward, Moise Kean, leads Fiorentina with 17 goals in the league, showcasing his sharp form. Meanwhile, Venezia’s scoring efforts have been led by Joel Pohjanpalo, who has netted six times this season.
The head-to-head record between these clubs is closely contested. The last five encounters ended with two victories each and one draw, indicating their even matchups. With light rain forecasted and mild temperatures around 18.5°C expected for the game, conditions may create a slick pitch. This could benefit teams adept at quick passing, which might give Fiorentina an edge, given their play style.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tip
Fiorentina’s better league position and consistent offensive output make them clear favorites against a struggling Venezia side dealing with defensive issues, as shown by the six goals they’ve conceded in their last five outings. Notably, Fiorentina has won two of their last three Serie A away games, compared to Venezia’s lone point from their recent three home matches. Moise Kean’s lethal presence at the front adds to Fiorentina’s attacking prowess against Venezia’s weak defense.
Here’s the betting tip for this game:
| Recommended Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina to win | 2.45 |
With the expected slick pitch conditions at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo due to light rain, Fiorentina’s fluid passing game under coach Raffaele Palladino might prove advantageous, making this betting option appealing.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Odds
The betting odds favor Fiorentina, reflecting their stronger league position against Venezia, who are stuck in a critical 18th position. Odds for Fiorentina’s win range between 2.43 and 2.45, highlighting the visitors’ expected dominance based on their recent victories and Venezia’s weak home performance.
Statistics back up this market perspective. Fiorentina scored seven goals in their last five games, mirroring their conceding rate, which suggests an open match. Meanwhile, Venezia’s defensive gaps are clear, with goals conceded in four of their last five home matches.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina to win | 2.43 – 2.45 |
There seems to be market value favoring Fiorentina, especially at the higher odds of 2.45.
Home Team Analysis
Recent Performance
Venezia’s recent Serie A matches have been marked by inconsistent performances. They secured one victory, drew three times, and faced one defeat in their last five matches, displaying unimpressive form.
| Match | Result |
|---|---|
| Torino vs Venezia | 1-1 D |
| Venezia vs AC Milan | 0-2 L |
| Empoli vs Venezia | 2-2 D |
| Venezia vs Monza | 1-0 W |
| Lecce vs Venezia | 1-1 D |
Venezia managed only five goals while conceding six and achieved just one clean sheet. They showed resilience with away draws at Torino and Empoli, but their heavy home loss to AC Milan highlights nagging defensive issues. A recurring theme is both teams scoring, evident in three of their last five matches.
Key Players
In Venezia’s squad, some players stand out. Joel Pohjanpalo leads their scoring with six goals, acting as the main focus of their attack. Veteran forward Christian Gytkjaer spearheads the team, leading counter-attacks, while Ionut Andrei Radu is key in goal, crucial for clean-sheet hopes.
Midfield dynamism is provided by Kike Pérez, who contributes both defensively and offensively, while Hans Nicolussi Caviglia provides energy as a box-to-box presence. Gianluca Busio, as a playmaker, has the potential to break down defenses.
Wing-backs Ridgeciano Haps and John Yeboah are expected to deliver crosses, while Alessio Zerbin’s speed provides valuable off-the-bench options with direct runs.
Suspensions & Injuries
Venezia is dealing with significant injuries affecting their squad depth, especially in defense and midfield.
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| Michael Svoboda | Injured |
| Richie Sagrado | Injured |
| Domen Crnigoj | Injured |
| Alfred Duncan | Injured |
Michael Svoboda’s absence weakens their defense, while Richie Sagrado’s unavailability limits their attacking depth. With midfielders Domen Crnigoj and Alfred Duncan also sidelined, Venezia’s central vulnerabilities are compounded. This forces coach Eusebio Di Francesco to rely on less experienced players, necessitating a reshuffle to tackle these gaps.
Tactics and Formation
Venezia might modify their formation due to injury challenges, potentially setting up in a 3-5-1-1 or 3-5-2 formation. The back three of Fali Cande, Jay Idzes, and Joel Schingtienne will need to ensure defensive solidity.
Wing-backs Ridgeciano Haps and John Yeboah will be key in providing width and crossing opportunities. Midfield balance might come from Kike Pérez and Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, with Gianluca Busio linking defense to attack.
Christian Gytkjaer is expected to lead the line as a striker, possibly supported by Alessio Zerbin, who could drop back to aid attacks. Venezia’s strategy will likely focus on a compact, strong defensive setup and quick transitions to exploit turnovers for scoring chances.
Away Team Analysis
Recent Performance
Fiorentina shows promise with three wins and two losses from their last five competitive games.
| Match | Result |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina vs Real Betis | 2-1 W |
| Roma vs Fiorentina | 1-0 L |
| Real Betis vs Fiorentina | 2-1 L |
| Fiorentina vs Empoli | 2-1 W |
| Cagliari vs Fiorentina | 1-2 W |
Their scoring matches their defense, with seven goals netted and conceded, showing some vulnerability to counter-attacks. Yet, key wins against Empoli and Cagliari highlight their resilience and offensive versatility, though recent losses expose potential defensive flaws.
Key Players
Fiorentina boasts several key players integrated seamlessly into their tactical plans. Moise Kean tops their goal charts with 17 strikes, playing as their primary attacking weapon, and is effectively complemented by Albert Guðmundsson, whose movement and finishing skills boost their attack.
In goal, veteran David De Gea manages the defensive line. Midfield operations rely on Rolando Mandragora’s industrious creativity and defense, while Nicolo Fagioli orchestrates with tempo and distribution control.
Wing-backs Robin Gosens and Dodo provide width and defensive support, and Yacine Adli’s creative finesse has the ability to unlock defenses. Central defenders Marin Pongracic and Pietro Comuzzo ensure organized defensive integrity.
Suspensions & Injuries
Fiorentina’s squad remains in good health overall, with minimal injury concerns.
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| Danilo Cataldi | Injured |
Although midfielder Danilo Cataldi is absent, impacting central midfield options, Fiorentina’s depth allows adjustments without a major drop in quality. Thus, they maintain a strong midfield core despite his unavailability.
Tactics and Formation
Fiorentina is likely to stick to a 3-5-2 formation, capitalizing on wing-back contributions for width and crosses. The trio of Pongracic, Comuzzo, and Ranieri provides stability in defense to counter threats.
Robin Gosens and Dodo are expected to advance and bolstering attacks while supporting defensively. Midfield possession is managed by Mandragora, Fagioli, and Adli, who are tasked with maintaining pressure and regulating the offensive flow.
Kean and Guðmundsson up front blend pace and technical acumen to disrupt defenses. The team might employ pressing tactics, aiming to exploit mistakes and open paths for creating decisive chances.
Venezia vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head Statistics
The historical head-to-head between Venezia and Fiorentina across their last five meetings indicates balance, with two wins each and a draw. Their recent matchup ended in a goalless draw on August 25, 2024, in Serie A at the Artemio Franchi.
| Date | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-25 | Serie A | Fiorentina 0-0 Venezia |
| 2022-04-16 | Serie A | Fiorentina 1-0 Venezia |
| 2021-10-18 | Serie A | Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina |
| 2018-07-21 | Friendly | Fiorentina 0-1 Venezia |
| 2004-05-15 | Serie A | Venezia 0-2 Fiorentina |
Patterns show closely contested, low-scoring matches focused on tactical battles and defensive resilience. Notable is Fiorentina’s only multi-goal win in May 2004 with a 2-0 score, highlighting how rare comprehensive victories are in this rivalry.
Venue and Weather
The iconic Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice, accessible via unique waterways due to its island setting, offers a historic setting for this Serie A encounter. With a capacity near 7,000, the stadium’s intimacy channels a vivid atmosphere with passionate local support.
Matchday conditions are expected to include light rain and a mild temperature around 18.5°C, potentially creating a slick pitch conducive to skillful, ground-focused play rather than physical confrontations. Gentle winds of about 6.7 m/s may slightly affect long passes, demanding precision.
Managers might encourage their teams to use possession-based strategies, leveraging the slick surface for quick interplay and to exploit defensive lapses. Overall, these moderate but damp conditions suggest an exciting tactical contest that focuses more on technical finesse than brute physicality.
