In the 2025 Brazilian Serie A Round 9, Sao Paulo welcomes Gremio to Morumbi Stadium. Both teams are eager to rise from their spots in the lower half of the table, each holding 9 points. With their historical strength in both Brazilian domestic and international competitions, this match promises to be pivotal.
Current Standings and Recent Form
Both sitting with 9 points, Sao Paulo and Gremio find themselves at 16th and 15th in the standings. This game is a prime chance to shift their league performances. Sao Paulo remains unbeaten at home for 12 matches in a row at Morumbi: a record they are determined to maintain. Meanwhile, Gremio struggles away, with no wins in their last five road trips.
- Sao Paulo’s Last Five Matches:
- 2025-05-10, vs Libertad, 1–1 (Copa Libertadores)
- 2025-05-04, vs Palmeiras, 0–1 (Serie A)
- 2025-04-29, vs Alianza Lima, 2–0 (Copa Libertadores)
- 2025-04-25, vs Fortaleza, 0–0 (Serie A)
- 2025-04-20, vs Nautico, 2–1 (Cup)
- Gremio’s Last Five Matches:
- 2025-05-12, vs Godoy Cruz, 1–1 (Copa Sudamericana)
- 2025-05-05, vs Red Bull Bragantino, 1–1 (Serie A)
- 2025-04-30, vs Atletico Grau, 0–0 (Copa Sudamericana)
- 2025-04-26, vs Santos FC, 1–0 (Serie A)
- 2025-04-22, vs CS Alagoano, 2–3 (Cup)
Historical Encounters
Historically, encounters between Sao Paulo and Gremio are a battle, often tough and tight. In their recent head-to-head meetings, Gremio has the edge with three wins compared to Sao Paulo’s two.
- Recent Head-to-Head:
- 2024-12-01: Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo
- 2024-07-17: Sao Paulo 1–0 Gremio
- 2023-10-21: Sao Paulo 3–0 Gremio
- 2023-06-04: Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo
- 2021-12-02: Gremio 3–0 Sao Paulo
Key Players
Ferreira leads Sao Paulo with three league goals, marking him as a dangerous attacker. Oscar, with his creative passes, is key to unlocking defenses. Both players will be crucial in executing Sao Paulo’s strategy against Gremio.
- Sao Paulo Key Players:
- Ferreira: 3 league goals; key in attacking prowess.
- Oscar: Midfield maestro, vital for link-ups.
- Andre: Central striker in Sao Paulo’s 4-5-1 setup.
- Gremio Key Players:
- Matias Arezo: Top scorer for Gremio this season.
- Tiago Volpi: First-choice goalkeeper, lynchpin in defense.
- Dodi: Central figure in midfield, controls game pace.
Team News
Both squads face injury woes affecting their lineup choices and tactics. Sao Paulo misses key player Jonathan Calleri due to a long-term injury, while Lucas Moura’s return is on the horizon, boosting morale.
Sao Paulo Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Issue | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Luiz Gustavo | Illness | Late May 2025 |
| Jonathan Calleri | Cruciate ligament | Early December 2025 |
| Igor Vinícius | Back injury | A few weeks |
| Lucas Moura | Knee injury | About 1–2 weeks |
Meanwhile, Gremio deals with several injuries, mainly in midfield and defense, potentially tipping the scales in favor of Sao Paulo.
Gremio Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Issue | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Ely | Cruciate ligament injury | Mid December 2025 |
| Gustavo Martins | Sprained knee | Late May 2025 |
| Cristian Pavón | Muscle injury | About 1 week |
| Mathías Villasanti | Thigh injury | Late May 2025 |
| Gustavo Cuéllar | Muscle injury | A few weeks |
| Edenilson | Muscle injury | About 1–2 weeks |
| Franco Cristaldo | Muscle injury | About 1–2 weeks |
Tactical Preview
Sao Paulo Tactics and Formation
Under Coach Zubeldia, Sao Paulo employs a 4-5-1 formation, emphasizing midfield control and defensive strength. They strive for possession dominance and strategic advances, using their width to stretch the opposition.
- Tactical Setup:
- Formation: 4-5-1
- Style: High possession, calculated build-up
- Key Strategy: Strong home defense, exploiting widths
- Personnel: Cedric Soares and Enzo Diaz for width, with Alisson and Marcos Antonio providing midfield balance
Gremio Tactics and Formation
Mano Menezes’ Gremio often lines up in a 4-4-2 formation, built on counter-attacking plays. This setup allows Gremio to withstand pressure and launch rapid transitions, targeting the flanks.
- Tactical Setup:
- Formation: 4-4-2
- Style: Strong defense, swift counter-attacks
- Key Strategy: Defensive resilience, exploiting transitions
- Personnel: Lucas Esteves and Wagner Leonardo managing wing-back roles for attack and defense fluidity
For a detailed look at Gremio’s tactics in recent Copa Sudamericana matches, you can check out analysis on Gremio vs. Atletico Grau.
Match Odds and Betting Tip
Bookmakers favor Sao Paulo to seize all three points, backed by their consistent home form and defensive solidity. It’s wise to bet on Sao Paulo to win, considering Gremio’s struggles away from home.
| Recommended Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sao Paulo to win | 1.67 – 1.87 |
- Sao Paulo’s unbeatable streak at Morumbi strengthens their case.
- Gremio’s poor away run weighs heavily in favor of Sao Paulo.
- Injury-hit squads give Sao Paulo an edge.
- Tactical clashes seem to restrict Gremio’s playstyle effectiveness.
Weather Conditions
Weather forecasts predict pleasant conditions for the game, with mild temperatures around 25.13°C and minimal cloud cover. Wind speed will register at 2.69 m/s with a 42% humidity level, suggesting smooth playing conditions.
Venue and Conclusion
Morumbi Stadium, a fortress for Sao Paulo, offers a strong foundation against Gremio. Given Gremio’s current woes on the road, Sao Paulo appears clear favorites. Coaches will aim to exploit their team’s strengths, but momentum is with the home side at this juncture. With historical rivalries in play, this Serie A clash is set to be intense and tactical, with both teams striving for crucial league points. For fans eager to delve into Gremio’s game strategies, further insights can be found in articles like match previews for Atletico Grau vs. Gremio.
