The Serie A season finale on May 24, 2025, pits AC Milan against Monza at the legendary San Siro. While it might look like a typical game, this match is vital for Monza, who are fighting to avoid relegation. AC Milan sit 9th with 60 points, out of European qualification, but keen to end their campaign on a high. Meanwhile, Monza find themselves at the bottom with 18 points, desperate for a miracle to evade automatic drop.
AC Milan have had mixed results recently. They’ve clinched three victories in their last five league matches, yet also suffered two losses. Christian Pulisic is vital for them, with 11 goals this season. Conversely, Monza’s recent showings have been lackluster, with only one win in their last five matches. They ended a long 15-match winless streak with that victory and will heavily depend on Dany Mota, their top scorer with five goals. Though Milan have dominated in past meetings, winning four of the last five, Monza stunned them with a 4-2 triumph in February 2024, showing surprises can happen.
Injuries are affecting both teams, requiring adjustments. Weather conditions might also have a minor impact, with slight rain predicted, possibly affecting the pitch.
AC Milan vs Monza Prediction & Betting tip
AC Milan are the clear favorites given their home ground advantage and form. Yet, Monza’s spirit under pressure could keep the score close. Recently, Milan have shown some defensive problems, letting in six goals in their last five outings. Monza might not have been prolific but have managed to cover a +2.00 Asian Handicap in recent away games. They’ll probably look to set-pieces and counterattacks to challenge Milan’s control.
| Recommended Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Monza +2.00 (AH) | 1.94–1.95 |
AC Milan vs Monza Odds
Official odds for the match winner aren’t out yet. However, the Asian Handicap market has piqued interest. Monza covering a +2.00 handicap at odds of 1.94–1.95 seems an appealing bet, considering a potentially tight match. Milan have a 60% win rate this season compared to Monza’s 20%, highlighting their stronger position. Milan have scored eight and conceded six in their recent games, showing moderate attacking strength. Meanwhile, Monza have scored three while letting in 11, underscoring their defensive struggles. Given Monza’s limited scoring, betting markets might anticipate fewer than 3.5 total goals for this match.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Monza +2.00 (AH) | 1.94–1.95 |
Home team Team Analysis
Home team Recent Performance
AC Milan’s form has been a mix of impressive wins and some frustrating losses. The Rossoneri secured three straight league wins before a 1-3 loss at Roma on May 18 dented their European dreams. Previously, a hard-fought Coppa Italia semi-final on May 14 saw them lose 0-1 to Bologna. A solid 3-1 victory over Bologna on May 9 showcased their attacking prowess, while a gritty 2-1 win against Genoa on May 5 showed Milan’s determination under pressure. An emphatic 2-0 win away at Venezia on April 27 highlighted defensive resilience, with one clean sheet in the past five matches.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Serie A | Roma 3–1 AC Milan |
| 2025-05-14 | Coppa Italia | AC Milan 0–1 Bologna |
| 2025-05-09 | Serie A | AC Milan 3–1 Bologna |
| 2025-05-05 | Serie A | Genoa 1–2 AC Milan |
| 2025-04-27 | Serie A | Venezia 0–2 AC Milan |
Home team Key Players
Christian Pulisic is AC Milan’s star, leading with 11 goals this season. His quick moves and precise finishing make him pivotal in Milan’s attacks. Rafael Leão adds speed and creativity on the left wing, crucial for breaking Monza’s defense. Forward Luka Jović is likely to lead the attack, aiming to penetrate Monza’s defense. On the backline, Theo Hernandez, coping with a thigh injury, looks to contribute his dynamic runs from left-back. In goal, Mike Maignan will be crucial in maintaining composure for Milan’s backline. Tijjani Reijnders orchestrates the midfield, linking defense to attack, while Youssouf Fofana controls play centrally. Strahinja Pavlović will be vital for handling Monza’s aerial threats.
Home team Suspensions & Injuries
AC Milan face fitness challenges as the season ends. Warren Bondo is sidelined with an ankle injury, and Samuel Chukwueze’s groin injury impacts the wing options. Though Theo Hernandez has a thigh injury, he’s pushing for a start if fit. Santiago Giménez is suspended following a red card against Roma, affecting Milan’s forward line-up. Depth issues concern left flank and forward rotations.
| Player | Status | Type of Issue |
|---|---|---|
| Warren Bondo | Injured | Ankle injury |
| Samuel Chukwueze | Injured | Groin injury |
| Theo Hernandez | Injured | Thigh injury |
| Santiago Giménez | Suspended | Red card (Roma match) |
Home team Tactics and Formation
Under Sergio Conceição, Milan might employ a flexible 4-3-3 formation to exploit width. Fullbacks Hernandez and Álex Jiménez will be key in overlaps and crossing. In midfield, Fofana and Reijnders will stabilize play and provide transitions, while Pulisic might support the front three. Expect Pulisic to cut inside, creating a trio with Leão and Jović. Defensively, Fikayo Tomori and Pavlović will counter Monza’s direct style. Milan may press high to unsettle Monza’s rhythm and regain the ball swiftly. Late substitutions could rejuvenate the midfield and attack against a possibly tired Monza backline.
Away team Team Analysis
Away team Recent Performance
Monza’s recent form is worrying. They lost 1-3 at home to Empoli on May 18, revealing defensive gaps. But, they did snatch a rare 2-1 win at Udinese on May 11, ending a 15-game winless stretch. Their 0-4 thrashing by Atalanta on May 4 showed defensive weaknesses, while a 0-2 defeat at Juventus on April 27 emphasized their offensive struggles. A 0-1 home loss to Napoli on April 19 revealed a lack of finishing despite some fight. In the last five matches, Monza scored thrice but conceded 11, without any clean sheets.
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Serie A | Monza 1–3 Empoli |
| 2025-05-11 | Serie A | Udinese 1–2 Monza |
| 2025-05-04 | Serie A | Monza 0–4 Atalanta |
| 2025-04-27 | Serie A | Juventus 2–0 Monza |
| 2025-04-19 | Serie A | Monza 0–1 Napoli |
Away team Key Players
Dany Mota leads Monza’s goal count with five this season, crucial in their attack. Gianluca Caprari adds creativity and can exploit spaces. Winger Keita Baldé uses his speed to stretch Milan’s defense on counters. Jean Daniel Akpa Akpro brings energy to disrupt Milan’s play. Central defender Andrea Carboni is crucial in aerial battles, while right-back Pedro Pereira ensures defensive stability and might support offensively. Goalkeeper Semuel Pizzignacco must stay vigilant against Milan’s attack.
Away team Suspensions & Injuries
Monza struggle with injuries mainly in their midfield and defense. Matteo Pessina’s thigh injury reduces creativity, while Armando Izzo’s groin issue weakens defensive options. Striker Silvere Ganvoula and midfielder Roberto Gagliardini have physical discomfort, making them doubtful for the match. Veteran Danilo D’Ambrosio’s muscle injury affects defense pace, and Omari Forson’s absence due to discomfort limits wing options. No current suspensions allow for a maximized lineup.
| Player | Status | Type of Issue |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Pessina | Injured | Thigh injury |
| Armando Izzo | Injured | Groin injury |
| Silvere Ganvoula | Injured | Physical discomfort |
| Roberto Gagliardini | Injured | Physical discomfort |
| Danilo D’Ambrosio | Injured | Muscle injury |
| Omari Forson | Injured | Physical discomfort |
Away team Tactics and Formation
Guided by Alessandro Nesta, Monza might line up in a careful 4-4-2 for defensive strength. Full-backs Pereira and Birindelli will likely focus on covering the wings. Midfielders Akpa Akpro and Bianco will press and intercept. Baldé and Zeroli on the wings will launch quick counters while upholding defensive duties. Forwards Caprari and Mota rely on set-pieces and play openings to threaten goals. Defensively, Monza might sit deep, absorbing pressure and aiming for swift transitions. Late attacking substitutions might seek to exploit AC Milan’s fatigue.
Home team vs Monza Head-to-Head Statistics
Historically, AC Milan often prevail over Monza, winning three of the last five encounters. These include a solid 3-0 home victory and a 3-1 away success, underlining Milan’s authority. Yet, Monza’s 4-2 victory in February 2024 signals that upsets are possible. Their most recent Serie A clash in November 2024 had Milan narrowly winning 1-0, showcasing tight play. A friendly in 2023 ended in a 1-1 draw with Milan emerging victorious on penalties (6-5). Matches average about 2.6 goals each, indicating open battles.
| Date | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | Serie A | Monza 0–1 AC Milan |
| 2024-08-13 | Friendly | AC Milan 3–1 Monza |
| 2024-02-18 | Serie A | Monza 4–2 AC Milan |
| 2023-12-17 | Serie A | AC Milan 3–0 Monza |
| 2023-08-08 | Friendly (pens) | Monza 1–1 AC Milan (5–6) |
Venue and Weather
The grand San Siro in Milan, with its 80,018 seats, hosts this key fixture. Known for its electric atmosphere, the stadium gives AC Milan a clear home edge. Late May in Milan typically offers mild weather, with daytime highs around 25°C and evening lows of 15°C, setting the stage for a dynamic showdown. Light rain is possible, which could make the pitch slick and affect gameplay. Teams may prefer short passes over long balls to maintain control. Mild winds should ensure steady crosses and long balls. Thus, the conditions promise an engaging match, with teams needing tactical adaptations for the wet surface and suitable footwear.
