With the sixth round of Group B in the World Cup Qualification UEFA soon approaching, anticipation builds as Sweden prepares to welcome Slovenia at the renowned Strawberry Arena in Stockholm on November 18th, 2025. Kick-off is at 20:45 CET. Both teams are on the brink as these qualification matches near their conclusion. Each side is vying for a chance at the World Cup or facing possible elimination.
Sweden finds itself in the bottom half of Group B, holding the 4th spot after a tough run. With only one win out of four qualifiers, Graham Potter’s squad has faced three losses or draws, challenging their qualification dreams. Their recent form is problematic, with three consecutive losses where they didn’t manage to score. They fell 0-1 to Kosovo at home, 0-2 against Switzerland, and were shut out 0-2 in their return match against Kosovo.
On the flip side, Slovenia has shown strong defense but has had its own issues scoring, holding 3rd place in the standings. The Slovenian squad hasn’t lost in their last two qualifiers, both ending in 0-0 draws. But despite their defensive strength, their single win in five matches signals their struggle to score. Their last game with Sweden earlier this year ended in a gripping 2-2 draw in Slovenia, and both teams are eager for a crucial win to climb up the group standings.
Sweden has maintained a solid 68% possession in recent matches and has had plenty of shots and corners despite unfavorable results. Meanwhile, Slovenia has averaged less than three shots per match, indicating a need for more attacking opportunities. This game gives Sweden a vital chance to capitalize on playing at home and possibly get back into the qualifying competition.
Sweden vs Slovenia Prediction & Betting Tip
Sweden will play at home in the Strawberry Arena and comes in as the statistically stronger side in terms of possession and shots on goal. Despite recent problems, their aggressive style might challenge Slovenia’s tough defense yet creatively limited play. Sweden’s need for a morale boost suggests they might come out strong, aiming to use the wings and break through Slovenia’s tight lines.
| Recommended Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sweden to win | 1.69 |
Sweden vs Slovenia Odds
Looking at the betting odds, there’s a clear favor towards Sweden with odds of 1.69 for a win, showing their advantage at home. With lower draw odds, a tie seems less likely, making a win crucial for Sweden to keep their World Cup hopes alive. Meanwhile, Slovenia’s odds might exceed 4.00, indicating their offensive challenges and the difficulty of playing away.
The market predicts “Under 2.5 goals” might be a rewarding option given Sweden’s average of less than one goal per game. Corner and possession stats strongly favor the home team, shown by their 12 corners against Kosovo. Slovenia’s sturdy defense has had two recent clean sheets, which raises their odds. Still, Sweden’s strong home play might challenge their aim for a third straight clean sheet. The Asian Handicap likely has Sweden at a -0.75 line, with attractive odds around 1.90, reflecting a high chance of them advancing.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sweden to win (1X2) | 1.69 |
Home team Team Analysis
Home team Recent Performance
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Sweden 0-1 Kosovo |
| 2025-10-10 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Sweden 0-2 Switzerland |
| 2025-09-08 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Kosovo 2-0 Sweden |
| 2025-09-05 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Slovenia 2-2 Sweden |
| 2025-06-10 | Friendlies | Sweden 4-3 Algeria |
Sweden’s recent form has been hit-and-miss. They’ve lost four of their last five games, with their only victory in a high-scoring friendly against Algeria. They’ve only scored four goals in this stretch, three of which came against Algeria. Despite a high 68% possession against Kosovo, they haven’t managed to turn this into goals.
Their shot tally is impressive, averaging over ten shots a game, but their conversion rate needs work. Their high corner count, like the 12 from the game against Kosovo, shows their attacking work but lacks execution. Defensively, they’ve been fragile, conceding first in four straight qualifiers. This has affected their confidence levels as they head into this essential home match.
Home team Key Players
Despite recent struggles, Sweden has players who can make a difference and revive their campaign. Anthony Elanga is a key player, having scored Sweden’s only goal in the qualifiers, highlighting the need for more precise finishing. Alexander Isak, an important forward, is recovering from a groin injury and hopes for a late November comeback. His presence and performance will be key to Sweden’s attacking plans.
Viktor Gyokeres, another key forward, is set for a similar comeback and his physical presence will be vital in attack. Victor Lindelof is crucial for leading the defense, along with Gustaf Lagerbielke and Isak Hien, essential for stopping Slovenian attacks.
Midfield creativity will rely on Alexander Bernhardsson and Yasin Ayari, who need to drive transitions and support the forwards effectively. Goalkeeper Victor Johansson needs to be in top form, especially with the cold weather they’ll face.
Home team Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Dejan Kulusevski | Knee injury | Late November 2025 |
| John Mellberg | Knee injury | Unknown |
| Williot Swedberg | Ankle injury | Doubtful |
| Edvin Kurtulus | Knee injury | Early January 2026 |
| Alexander Isak | Groin injury | Late November 2025 |
| Niclas Eliasson | Muscle injury | A few weeks |
| Lucas Bergvall | Concussion | Doubtful |
| Viktor Gyokeres | Strain injury | Late November 2025 |
| Isac Lidberg | Knock injury | About a week |
| Hugo Larsson | Thigh injury | Early December 2025 |
Sweden’s squad is heavily impacted by injuries, particularly in attacking areas. The potential returns of Gyokeres and Isak are significant. Their absence has been felt, with Kulusevski’s expected return in late November potentially boosting their attack. Eliasson and Bergvall’s uncertain fitness restricts midfield options, and defensive depth is affected by Mellberg’s uncertain status.
Graham Potter might adjust to a back-three system to manage these challenges, while hoping for a positive impact from Lidberg’s expected return.
Home team Tactics and Formation
Speculation suggests Sweden might use a pragmatic 3-5-2 formation, with Lagerbielke, Hien, and Lindelof providing defensive stability. Wingbacks Daniel Svensson and Gabriel Gudmundsson will offer width and support.
In central midfield, Bernhardsson, Ayari, and Svensson will look to control the tempo and facilitate forward play. A front pairing of Gyokeres, potentially with a fit-again Isak, will aim to maximize scoring chances.
Sweden’s high possession play and pressing will put pressure on Slovenia, trying to leverage their 68% possession seen against Kosovo. Utilizing set pieces, as shown by their high corner numbers, will be essential. The defense will push higher to restrict Slovenia’s counter attacks.
Away team Team Analysis
Away team Recent Performance
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland |
| 2025-10-10 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Kosovo 0-0 Slovenia |
| 2025-09-08 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Switzerland 3-0 Slovenia |
| 2025-09-05 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Slovenia 2-2 Sweden |
| 2025-06-10 | Friendlies | Slovenia 2-1 Bosnia & Herz |
Slovenia has shown their determination with two consecutive 0-0 draws in qualifiers, emphasizing their defensive approach. But their attack has struggled, with only one win in the last five games. They haven’t been able to score away in four qualifiers, highlighting their attacks’ limitations.
Their 3-0 loss to Switzerland hurt, but a draw with Sweden shows they can compete defensively. Their midfield’s management keeps them in low-scoring games, reinforcing Slovenia’s defensive solidity.
Away team Key Players
Jan Oblak stands out as Slovenia’s key goalkeeper, acting as a solid last line of defense. Benjamin Sesko, an important forward, is dealing with knee injury issues, which might affect their offensive threats alongside Danijel Sturm.
Defenders David Brekalo and Jaka Bijol are central to maintaining Slovenia’s organized defense. In midfield, Tomi Horvat contributes significantly, performing box-to-box duties effectively.
Adam Gnezda Cerin and Timi Elsnik bring creativity to the table, aiming to drive attacking plays. Vanja Drkusic’s role at left-back combines defense with offensive runs.
Away team Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Zan Zaletel | Knee injury | Doubtful |
| Benjamin Sesko | Knee injury | Unknown |
Slovenia enjoys mostly a full roster, with just two injuries noted. Zan Zaletel’s potential absence might limit team rotation, while Sesko’s uncertain recovery could affect their attacking plans. With no suspensions, Slovenia benefits from stability, relying on experienced anchors like Oblak and Brekalo for guidance.
If Sesko’s return is delayed, Slovenia might consider a change in formation, focusing on counter-attacks and robust defense, possibly moving to a 4-5-1 setup.
Away team Tactics and Formation
Slovenia aims to strengthen their defense, likely deploying a 4-4-2 formation to control the midfield with a strong two-man pivot. Wide midfielders Elsnik and Horvat will support the full-backs, transitioning quickly between defense and attack.
Under the leadership of captain Oblak, Slovenia seeks to use strategic counter-attacks when they regain possession, hoping to catch Sweden off guard with quick breaks. Sesko and Sturm, if available, will lead the pressing, looking for chances from any defensive errors by Sweden.
Slovenia is likely to start conservatively, determined to block Sweden’s passing and find opportunities to exploit space left by Sweden’s aggressive playstyle, particularly focusing on set-pieces as potential threats.
Home team vs Away team Head-to-Head Statistics
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-05 | World Cup Qualification UEFA | Slovenia 2-2 Sweden |
| 2022-09-27 | UEFA Nations League B | Sweden 1-1 Slovenia |
| 2022-06-02 | UEFA Nations League B | Slovenia 0-2 Sweden |
| 2016-05-30 | Friendlies | Sweden 0-0 Slovenia |
| 2008-05-26 | Friendlies | Sweden 1-0 Slovenia |
Sweden and Slovenia have faced off five times since 2008, with Sweden winning twice and two draws occurring, plus a single two-goal margin game. Their last meeting in September ended in an exciting 2-2 draw.
Their encounters show Sweden with a slight edge. Clean sheets have featured in three of these matches, highlighting their shared defensive focus. Still, Slovenia’s resilience in meetings against Sweden shows their capacity to handle pressure and respond steadily despite challenging away-game settings.
Both teams have motivation on their side: Sweden looks to capitalize on home advantage while Slovenia relies on their balanced approach to possibly upset the hosts even with travel challenges.
Venue and Weather
The match will take place at the Strawberry Arena in Stockholm, a ground where Sweden feels at home. The November weather forecasts near-freezing temperatures around 0.04°C, urging teams to use proper footwear and warm-ups.
No rain is expected, ensuring a dry field perfect for Sweden’s control-heavy game plan. Wind speeds are low at 3.18 m/s, meaning passing won’t be disrupted much.
For Slovenia, adjusting to the chilly conditions is key. They’ll need to adapt to the fast, hardened pitch of the Strawberry Arena, which could play into Sweden’s hands if they manage to settle in quickly and make the most of their home field benefit.
